05 Oct 2025

The Future of Home Care: Demand is Rising – Is Australia Ready?

As more Australians grow older, having access to care and support at home is becoming a vital part of staying safe, independent, and connected. 

The Federal Government’s Support at Home reforms are intended to make it easier for people to receive care in their own homes. The idea is to give older Australians more flexibility and choice — so they can continue living the way they want, in the place they feel most comfortable. 

But recent projections suggest demand could soon far outweigh the number of care places available. According to aged care economist Professor Kathy Eagar, even with an additional 83,000 packages, more than 200,000 people may still miss out on home support each year. By 2035, the shortfall could rise to 367,000. 

This isn’t just about numbers — it’s about people. People who want to remain in their homes, close to family and community, but may not be able to get the help they need when they need it most. 

Understanding the Challenge 

Eagar’s forecasts highlight a growing mismatch between demand and supply. 

  • In 2025, more than 530,000 people are expected to need home care. 

  • Only 299,765 packages are projected to be available — leaving more than 230,000 people without support. 

  • By 2030, the shortfall is predicted to exceed 300,000. 

  • By 2035, with more than 6.4 million Australians aged over 65, the system may be delivering less than half the care required. 

These numbers suggest that while reforms are moving in the right direction, they may not go far enough to meet the needs of a rapidly ageing population. 

Affordability and Access 

The way the Support at Home program is designed also raises questions about affordability. Fees are linked to the number of hours of care a person receives, rather than their ability to pay. For those who are more frail and need more support, this could mean higher costs. 

For older Australians living on fixed or limited incomes, this may become a real barrier. While there is a hardship provision, the application has been described as complex — at 17 pages long, it may be too difficult for many to navigate. 

When people can’t access the right care at home, they may end up in hospital after a fall, a medication error, or from general neglect. In some cases, they may need to move into residential aged care sooner than expected. 

Keeping Community Support Strong 

One suggestion — highlighted by Eagar — is to retain the Commonwealth Home Support Program (CHSP) as a separate, flexible, and lower-cost option alongside Support at Home. 

CHSP already supports over 800,000 Australians with services such as meals, transport, and help around the home. But because waitlist data isn’t collected, it’s difficult to see how many people are missing out. 

Keeping CHSP as a standalone option could help ease pressure on the broader system and give people more tailored pathways depending on their level of need. 

Looking Ahead 

At Lumia Care, we believe everyone should have access to the support they need to live safely and comfortably at home. 

If you or a loved one is on a waitlist, unsure about eligibility, or simply need guidance, please reach out. Our team can walk you through the options available — whether government-funded, privately funded, or a mix of both — and help you find the right pathway forward. 

 

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